EDC predicts modest growth in western Canada despite oil slump
The forecast was published in a recently released report Global Export Forecast 2015.
“There’s no question that low oil prices are having a major impact on exports from Western Canada, especially Alberta,” EDC Chief Economist Peter Hall said. “But Saskatchewan and Manitoba are showing how provinces with a more diversified range of exports can soften the blow caused by declines in one sector.”
EDC found that Saskatchewan will likely be able to absorb the decline in energy exports through the strength of its agricultural and fertilizer exports, which will be up 10 percent and 38 percent by year's end, respectively. Manitoba is expected to do the same on the back of its pharmaceutical shipments and growing private industries like New Flyer, which provides ground transportation to the U.S. government.
The longer-term outlook for all three provinces is promising, as each province's non-energy export sectors will only be asked to shoulder the load for a short time. EDC forecasts that energy exports will again rise 13 to 20 percent in the provinces in 2016.
EDC is an organization of Canadian economists focused on providing financing solutions and insurance to small businesses with sales outside of Canada. It manages a variety of programs to help exporters access financing and reduce risk.